Build a thesis you can challenge

Sun, 27 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT

Before asking where a price will go, ask what you own and why its value might change. A useful investment thesis starts with the business, not with a target price.

Start with the engine.

Describe who pays the company, what they pay for, and what has to happen for revenue to become cash. Separate growth in volume from changes in price or product mix.

Write the counterargument.

Choose the strongest explanation for why your thesis could be wrong. A competitor might lower prices, a customer might leave, or growth might require more capital than you expected.

Name the next evidence.

Record the operating indicator you expect to change, when you expect to see it, and what result would make you reconsider. The point is a decision you can revisit, not a prediction you have to defend.

Give AI a job, not a wish list

Sun, 27 Sep 2026 00:00:00 GMT

A new model is interesting. A repeatable improvement in your work is useful. Start the evaluation with one task you already do, and a clear definition of a good result.

Choose one bounded task.

Try structuring source notes, reviewing a draft, or classifying documents. Keep sensitive information out of a service until you understand its access and data controls.

Measure the whole workflow.

Include the time spent writing instructions, checking output, and correcting mistakes. A fast first draft that requires extensive repair may not save time.

Keep a human checkpoint.

Decide which claims need sources and which actions require your approval. Save a small set of examples so the same workflow can be tested again when tools change.

Solo Primus