Investing · AI · Self-improvement
Three kinds of leverage
Understand value, follow the forces shaping AI, and learn how people think and act. Three paths to clearer judgment and more deliberate action.
Investing
Start from first principles and understand what a business is really worth.
Thesis card
AI
Trace how technical advances reshape the AI industry and open up new applications. Examine the forces behind emerging trends, their significance, and their limits.
Three lenses on AI
Self-improvement
Explore human nature and the biology behind how we think and act. Use evidence and deliberate practice to refine your thinking, build lasting habits, and change how you behave.
Understand, test, refine
Start here
Newest first
Learning how manipulation works should make us harder to exploit, not eager to exploit others. A case for studying power, incentives, and the choices people are left with.
Status is borrowed. Judgment has to be earned. What can we build that survives a change of fortune, and what is worth leaving to the next generation?
A sense of purpose can help you withstand uncertainty. But only if it rests on what you value, rather than on a promise that things will go your way.
A story can change expectations, draw in resources, and help create the reality it describes. That gives its author power, but it doesn't exempt the story from being tested.
Protect your ability to keep going, recover your judgment, and rebuild your options. Getting out of a difficult situation takes more than betting everything on a comeback.
AI has made answers cheap. Sound judgment still depends on knowledge—and on whether you can use it when real constraints apply.
What future does the price require, can new investment earn its cost of capital, and who is financing the expansion? Three questions for judging how fragile a boom has become.
What Thiel's arguments about competition, credentials, and career choices can teach young people—and where his advice needs qualification.
AI can transform the economy and still disappoint investors. Li Lu's Columbia discussion offers a way to think about price, China, geopolitics, and what compounds over a lifetime.
Time cannot be bought back. Use it to build judgment, useful work, trust, and health, so each year leaves you with more than a full calendar.
Doug Leone describes fear as a reason to keep changing. His experience suggests how a specific worry can lead to action, and why living in constant fear is a different matter.
A long-term commitment changes more than how long you persist. It changes your measure of success, bringing future regret, compounding, and opportunity cost into today's choices.
For a young person, investing in your ability to earn often matters most. Build that first, then let saving and long-term investing multiply what you have built.
Nike's turnaround tests a long-term investor's patience. What evidence would justify waiting, and when would the capital be better used elsewhere?
As AI moves from producing answers to completing tasks, its bottlenecks shift. Follow an agent's workflow to understand rising CPU demand—and what would make the shortage last.
Understand how a business creates value, then identify the evidence that could change your mind.
Evaluate a tool against a real task, including the time it takes to check and repair its output.
Change the label on the same bottle of wine, and it tastes different. For anyone who sells a service, everything before delivery is the evidence a client uses to judge you.
The people who bought PetroChina in 2007 and Moutai in 2014 were not answering the same question when they placed their orders. Look one level higher at a time: time, probability, structure, where returns come from, and yourself.
Some judgments show how much you understand only after you have used them in your own life. A single choice of apartment shows how experience fills in the costs you left out.
Between judging that valuations are too high and judging when prices will fall lie shifts in capital, interests, and expectations. An industry that adjusts on its own makes short sellers pay for the wait.
Solo Primus is my English pen name; I write as 凌霄 (Lingxiao) in Chinese. The mountain and winding path in my mark reflect how I approach life: choose my own direction, draw on tools and ideas that help me go further, and keep learning along the way. Each step matters, and there is always more to discover.
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